本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛This book contains lots of factual information and useful overviews as to what the key economic indicators are, how they are constructed, what their purpose is, and how they work. With that said, it felt more like a pocketbook of facts and figures, similar to the ones published by The Economist, than an actual "guide" for traders.
In the introduction, the book is offered as a useful source for anyone new to these indicators, but Yamarone never really mentions one of the most important aspects of trading: how to prioritize information flow.
The drawback of fundamental trading is the susceptibility to "analysis paralysis," i.e. the danger of information overload causing you to freeze like a deer in the headlights. On the other side of the coin, traders who try to digest a mountain of information without prioritizing it are more likely to make their decisions based on a handful of dominating factors, or even hunches, and then simply use the additional supportive data they find to justify those decisions. Studies of decision-making habits conducted on CIA intelligence analysts show that, when there is a surplus of information, it's a natural tendency to use only a small portion of the information available, while incorrectly assuming that all of it is being utilized.
Yamarone does not mention these pitfalls, nor does he cover the reality of theme trading and indicator fashion. Indicators and market relationships go in and out of style, much like short skirts or thigh high boots on the catwalks of Paris and Milan. Traders will collectively switch their focus from one relationship to another, one data set to another, and so on; the trade deficit means nothing for a while, then suddenly it means everything. The Employment Situation is critical for a time, then later inconsequential as long term yields come to the fore. It's all about context, and that isn't addressed at all.
In writing for a large audience, Yamarone also made sure to keep his opinions bland and uncontroversial. I found this a little disappointing in terms of what was left out. For example, consider this tidbit from the chapter on New Residential Construction:
"Before the 2001 recession, housing starts were the most reliable and accurate measure of U.S. economic health... the 2001 recession broke this pattern. Housing starts remained strong during the downturn because historically low inflation kept mortgage rates low..."
For a student of economic history--or a trader wishing to profit from macroeconomic movements--this is highly provocative subject matter. Questions come tumbling forth: Has a longstanding relationship been declared invalid by the 2001 pattern, or was it a case of unprecedented doubling down via credit stimulus? Were mortgage rates low simply because inflation was low, or more because the fed was hell-bent on pumping easy money into the economy to avoid a reckoning? Is it historically a good thing to try and avoid all painful recessions, or are painful recessions occasionally necessary, as a cleansing process after a period of extreme speculative excess, with bad-to-worse consequences for putting them off? Is there greater risk when a paper asset bubble transitions into a real estate valuation bubble?
Yamarone sails past all of this, like an amateur checkers player doing commentary for a chess tournament. My guess is that he is well aware of these subtexts, but his overriding goal was to avoid fistfights and not offend anyone. When conflict avoidance is a key factor, milktoast commentary is often the lukewarm result!
In my reviews I occasionally suggest alternate titles that better reflect a book's contents. I would call this one "the MBA grad's guide to economic indicators," or maybe "the junior analyst's guide to economic indicators." If it were truly aimed at traders, it would (or should) have more to say about prioritizing information flow, gaming expectations, and paying attention to context, context, context.
As it stands, Yamarone has put together a decent reference source to grab off the shelf when a wallflower data set becomes the latest belle of the Wall Street ball. By that measure, it's a worthwhile purchase.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
In the introduction, the book is offered as a useful source for anyone new to these indicators, but Yamarone never really mentions one of the most important aspects of trading: how to prioritize information flow.
The drawback of fundamental trading is the susceptibility to "analysis paralysis," i.e. the danger of information overload causing you to freeze like a deer in the headlights. On the other side of the coin, traders who try to digest a mountain of information without prioritizing it are more likely to make their decisions based on a handful of dominating factors, or even hunches, and then simply use the additional supportive data they find to justify those decisions. Studies of decision-making habits conducted on CIA intelligence analysts show that, when there is a surplus of information, it's a natural tendency to use only a small portion of the information available, while incorrectly assuming that all of it is being utilized.
Yamarone does not mention these pitfalls, nor does he cover the reality of theme trading and indicator fashion. Indicators and market relationships go in and out of style, much like short skirts or thigh high boots on the catwalks of Paris and Milan. Traders will collectively switch their focus from one relationship to another, one data set to another, and so on; the trade deficit means nothing for a while, then suddenly it means everything. The Employment Situation is critical for a time, then later inconsequential as long term yields come to the fore. It's all about context, and that isn't addressed at all.
In writing for a large audience, Yamarone also made sure to keep his opinions bland and uncontroversial. I found this a little disappointing in terms of what was left out. For example, consider this tidbit from the chapter on New Residential Construction:
"Before the 2001 recession, housing starts were the most reliable and accurate measure of U.S. economic health... the 2001 recession broke this pattern. Housing starts remained strong during the downturn because historically low inflation kept mortgage rates low..."
For a student of economic history--or a trader wishing to profit from macroeconomic movements--this is highly provocative subject matter. Questions come tumbling forth: Has a longstanding relationship been declared invalid by the 2001 pattern, or was it a case of unprecedented doubling down via credit stimulus? Were mortgage rates low simply because inflation was low, or more because the fed was hell-bent on pumping easy money into the economy to avoid a reckoning? Is it historically a good thing to try and avoid all painful recessions, or are painful recessions occasionally necessary, as a cleansing process after a period of extreme speculative excess, with bad-to-worse consequences for putting them off? Is there greater risk when a paper asset bubble transitions into a real estate valuation bubble?
Yamarone sails past all of this, like an amateur checkers player doing commentary for a chess tournament. My guess is that he is well aware of these subtexts, but his overriding goal was to avoid fistfights and not offend anyone. When conflict avoidance is a key factor, milktoast commentary is often the lukewarm result!
In my reviews I occasionally suggest alternate titles that better reflect a book's contents. I would call this one "the MBA grad's guide to economic indicators," or maybe "the junior analyst's guide to economic indicators." If it were truly aimed at traders, it would (or should) have more to say about prioritizing information flow, gaming expectations, and paying attention to context, context, context.
As it stands, Yamarone has put together a decent reference source to grab off the shelf when a wallflower data set becomes the latest belle of the Wall Street ball. By that measure, it's a worthwhile purchase.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net