本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛"USDCAD (1.0710) The currency market is a bit more embracing of risk today, with the USD weaker against most of the G10 and JPY underperforming. Crude oil prices are up $1.30/barrel, as Hurricane Ike (category 2) moves towards refining operations in Houston, which could also be pressuring the USD. Equity markets rallied yesterday on optimism Lehman Brothers would find a white knight, with the WSJ reporting late in the day that Bank of America was a potential buyer and the Fed’s H.4.1 report revealing Lehman had not tapped the primary dealer credit facility through Wednesday. Bank shares have led the gains in Japan and Europe, and the carry trade is doing reasonably well, with EURJPY rising back above 151.00. However, gains in equities and carry are unwinding as we go to press, although there is speculation a Lehman announcement is imminent, so who knows where things might stand an hour from now? Nevertheless, if the market could not hold onto its gains following the government’s takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it is doubtful that Lehman’s salvation will mark anything more than a short-term reprieve for the carry trade. The good news is that while various credit market indicators have shown signs of increasing nervousness in recent weeks, speculation regarding Lehman’s fate has not let to the sort of panic that preceded Bear Sterns’ collapse. However, nervousness relating to the economic outlook is certainly on the rise, with Fed funds futures implying a not-insignificant chance the Fed will lower rates before year end. What is noteworthy is that the steady rally in US interest rate futures has done little to disrupt the USD rally. A flight to safety, lower crude oil and accumulating evidence of a global slowdown have all insulated the USD against weakness back home. Should Hurricane Ike do real damage to the US refining infrastructure, the USD will be the worse for it, but the fact is that crude’s rise today is not too substantial considering this risk, which underscores the strength of the demand destruction argument. Nevertheless, with the USD looking overbought and on the defensive today, we believe there is a risk of a further decline should US retail sales undershoot expectations significantly. USDCAD has been trending higher, but it has been a choppy rise and the pair is lower by ½% today. The market has encountered difficulty establishing a firm foothold above 1.0800, but we still think a firm break of this level will occur. It will be interesting to see how CAD will respond should US retail sales disappoint. Whereas CAD has outperformed considerably alongside the USD lately (falling only 0.7% over the past month versus declines of 4% or more by the rest of the G10 ex JPY), signs of weakness in the US economy threaten to put an end to this trend." (SC FX)更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net