本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Suggested range of 1.0720 – 1.0795 for today
“USDCAD (1.0750) The USD continues to soar, lifting the DXY index above 80.0 for the first time since last summer. With the move over the past several days, the DXY has reclaimed all of the ground that was lost during the Fed easing campaign that started one year ago next week. JPY continues to outperform with equities slumping globally, while NZD is down more than 2% after the RBNZ surprised the market with a 50bp rate cut. AUD is falling in sympathy, down 1% despite better than expected Australian employment data. Several important technical milestones have been reached in the past several hours, with EURUSD breaking below 1.4000 and EURJPY moving through 150.00. CAD is outperforming modestly, but is proving unable to resist the relentless strength in the USD. USDCAD is getting ever closer to 1.0800 and we thing it is just a matter of time before this breaks. Crude oil continues to slip towards $100/barrel, while gold has broken below $750/oz. With Fed funds futures now pricing in modest odds of a rate cut before year end, disappointing US economic data may prompt some USD weakness, particularly given its overbought status (the RSI on the DXY index is almost 82, which is exceptionally high by historical standards). However, considering the momentum that is behind the USD, the likelihood that anyone who has faded this rally has been badly burned and with the ongoing decline in crude oil, we would not advocate being short the USD, even at these overbought levels. There may be an opportunity to join a tactical short USD move once one gets started; however, barring some truly horrific US data or a major rally in crude oil we think any USD pullbacks will be modest. Today’s data may not threaten the USD all that much (we think tomorrow’s retail sales report represents the larger event risk for the currency). Jobless claims have been rising, and there is no doubt anymore that this represents true fundamental deterioration, rather than a distortion due to the extension of benefits. However, the USD proved resilient to last Friday’s dismal nonfarm payrolls report so there is little reason to think something close to expectations today will hurt the USD. The US trade deficit is expected to widen in July by a bit more than $1bn, but this will be discounted due to the tumble in crude oil (crude oil hit its peak on July 11th). The real trade balance has improved materially since early 2007 on a combination of resilient exports and slowing imports. The former is at risk from the global slowdown (the ISM manufacturing export index has fallen for three straight months), but a further slowdown in imports and lower crude oil prices both augur favourably for the direction of the deficit in the months ahead. • However, much the opposite applies when it comes to Canada. Our second chart shows that it is energy that has held Canada’s trade balance in comfortable surplus over the past year. The ongoing decline both crude oil and natural gas prices foreshadow a contraction in the trade surplus that should weigh on CAD in the months ahead.” (SC FX)更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
“USDCAD (1.0750) The USD continues to soar, lifting the DXY index above 80.0 for the first time since last summer. With the move over the past several days, the DXY has reclaimed all of the ground that was lost during the Fed easing campaign that started one year ago next week. JPY continues to outperform with equities slumping globally, while NZD is down more than 2% after the RBNZ surprised the market with a 50bp rate cut. AUD is falling in sympathy, down 1% despite better than expected Australian employment data. Several important technical milestones have been reached in the past several hours, with EURUSD breaking below 1.4000 and EURJPY moving through 150.00. CAD is outperforming modestly, but is proving unable to resist the relentless strength in the USD. USDCAD is getting ever closer to 1.0800 and we thing it is just a matter of time before this breaks. Crude oil continues to slip towards $100/barrel, while gold has broken below $750/oz. With Fed funds futures now pricing in modest odds of a rate cut before year end, disappointing US economic data may prompt some USD weakness, particularly given its overbought status (the RSI on the DXY index is almost 82, which is exceptionally high by historical standards). However, considering the momentum that is behind the USD, the likelihood that anyone who has faded this rally has been badly burned and with the ongoing decline in crude oil, we would not advocate being short the USD, even at these overbought levels. There may be an opportunity to join a tactical short USD move once one gets started; however, barring some truly horrific US data or a major rally in crude oil we think any USD pullbacks will be modest. Today’s data may not threaten the USD all that much (we think tomorrow’s retail sales report represents the larger event risk for the currency). Jobless claims have been rising, and there is no doubt anymore that this represents true fundamental deterioration, rather than a distortion due to the extension of benefits. However, the USD proved resilient to last Friday’s dismal nonfarm payrolls report so there is little reason to think something close to expectations today will hurt the USD. The US trade deficit is expected to widen in July by a bit more than $1bn, but this will be discounted due to the tumble in crude oil (crude oil hit its peak on July 11th). The real trade balance has improved materially since early 2007 on a combination of resilient exports and slowing imports. The former is at risk from the global slowdown (the ISM manufacturing export index has fallen for three straight months), but a further slowdown in imports and lower crude oil prices both augur favourably for the direction of the deficit in the months ahead. • However, much the opposite applies when it comes to Canada. Our second chart shows that it is energy that has held Canada’s trade balance in comfortable surplus over the past year. The ongoing decline both crude oil and natural gas prices foreshadow a contraction in the trade surplus that should weigh on CAD in the months ahead.” (SC FX)更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net