本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛They found total output of goods and services -- the so-called gross domestic product -- generally stops shrinking after two years, but the unemployment rate remains high for another three years or so and climbs by an average of seven percentage points. That suggests unemployment, up five percentage points so far, could remain in double digits into 2011.
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[转帖] Expect a Dull Recovery if Jobs Picture Fails to Brighten
The risk of another Great Depression has diminished, and the end of the U.S. recession that began in December 2007 may be only a couple of months away, if forecasters are right. But hold off on the champagne. All signs point to a recovery so painful that many Americans may not realize when it finally arrives.
First, the good news. Auto sales and housing starts have fallen so low that they are unlikely to fall further, hence the talk of "stabilization" in those big, beleaguered industries. The mountain of unsold goods in factories, warehouses and stores, though still large, is shrinking. That eventually will lead manufacturers to stop reducing production and laying off workers. U.S. exports perked up in May. Credit markets are beginning to heal. Big companies are selling bonds. Even banks are selling new shares of stock.
"Right now, we're like a patient whose condition has stabilized and whose fever is just starting to come down," Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said recently.
But the job market remains awful. In December 2008, forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted the jobless rate would hit what then seemed a very high 8.1% at the end of 2009. Surveyed again this past week, forecasters now anticipate year-end unemployment of 10%. That suggests 775,000 more Americans will join the ranks of the jobless in the next six months.
Because most Americans depend on their paychecks for their shopping, a weak job market and lousy wage growth have cast an ominous shadow over consumer spending and the overall economy.
Economies hit by severe banking crises generally take a long time to regain their health. Recovering from such a recession takes much longer than from recessions caused by a central bank boosting interest rates to fight inflation, as the Federal Reserve did when in provoking the deep recession of the early 1980s.
"The aftermath of banking crises is associated with profound declines in output and employment," economists Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University concluded after examining 14 big financial crises around the world.
They found total output of goods and services -- the so-called gross domestic product -- generally stops shrinking after two years, but the unemployment rate remains high for another three years or so and climbs by an average of seven percentage points. That suggests unemployment, up five percentage points so far, could remain in double digits into 2011.
Even that far-from-pleasant scenario assumes that events unfold roughly as anticipated.
The crucial issue is whether the U.S. economy can reach what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke calls "escape velocity," enough oomph from consumers and business that it can pull out of the slump and bring down unemployment. Crossing the line from negative to positive growth won't do it. Sure, the U.S. economy is traditionally resilient. But anxious U.S. consumers are rediscovering the virtues of thrift and many overseas markets are mired in their own recessions.
For now, government is driving the economy with tax cuts and spending increases, low interest rates and aggressive Fed purchases of long-term securities. But the Fed appears reluctant to do more. It has cut interest rates to zero. It has purchased so many mortgage-backed securities that it fears that buying more would destroy whatever market for them remains. And it's reluctant to go beyond its announced $300-billion purchases of long-term Treasury securities for fear of unsettling markets and complicating the eventual exit from this extraordinary policy.
That leaves fiscal stimulus. The economic case for more is that the economy looks even weaker than it did when President Barack Obama signed the $787-billion package of tax cuts and spending increases in February. The economic case against is, one, the bulk of the fiscal-stimulus spending hasn't hit yet and what's coming could jolt the economy back to life and, two, the government's debt load is getting awfully big.
The political case for waiting is simple: The first Obama stimulus looks like a flop and Congress won't do more now.
But it's hard to imagine Mr. Obama settling for a jobless recovery, or Democrats in Congress telling voters apologetically in November 2010 that there is nothing more they can do to bring unemployment below 10%.
For now, the talk of more stimulus money has been quashed. The White House game plans seem to be: Get a health-care bill through and argue that will reduce the deficit by slowing health-cost growth. Then, if the economic outlook remains bleak, push another stimulus aimed directly at employment, perhaps a tax break for hiring or even government jobs.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~``````
[转帖] Expect a Dull Recovery if Jobs Picture Fails to Brighten
The risk of another Great Depression has diminished, and the end of the U.S. recession that began in December 2007 may be only a couple of months away, if forecasters are right. But hold off on the champagne. All signs point to a recovery so painful that many Americans may not realize when it finally arrives.
First, the good news. Auto sales and housing starts have fallen so low that they are unlikely to fall further, hence the talk of "stabilization" in those big, beleaguered industries. The mountain of unsold goods in factories, warehouses and stores, though still large, is shrinking. That eventually will lead manufacturers to stop reducing production and laying off workers. U.S. exports perked up in May. Credit markets are beginning to heal. Big companies are selling bonds. Even banks are selling new shares of stock.
"Right now, we're like a patient whose condition has stabilized and whose fever is just starting to come down," Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said recently.
But the job market remains awful. In December 2008, forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted the jobless rate would hit what then seemed a very high 8.1% at the end of 2009. Surveyed again this past week, forecasters now anticipate year-end unemployment of 10%. That suggests 775,000 more Americans will join the ranks of the jobless in the next six months.
Because most Americans depend on their paychecks for their shopping, a weak job market and lousy wage growth have cast an ominous shadow over consumer spending and the overall economy.
Economies hit by severe banking crises generally take a long time to regain their health. Recovering from such a recession takes much longer than from recessions caused by a central bank boosting interest rates to fight inflation, as the Federal Reserve did when in provoking the deep recession of the early 1980s.
"The aftermath of banking crises is associated with profound declines in output and employment," economists Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University concluded after examining 14 big financial crises around the world.
They found total output of goods and services -- the so-called gross domestic product -- generally stops shrinking after two years, but the unemployment rate remains high for another three years or so and climbs by an average of seven percentage points. That suggests unemployment, up five percentage points so far, could remain in double digits into 2011.
Even that far-from-pleasant scenario assumes that events unfold roughly as anticipated.
The crucial issue is whether the U.S. economy can reach what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke calls "escape velocity," enough oomph from consumers and business that it can pull out of the slump and bring down unemployment. Crossing the line from negative to positive growth won't do it. Sure, the U.S. economy is traditionally resilient. But anxious U.S. consumers are rediscovering the virtues of thrift and many overseas markets are mired in their own recessions.
For now, government is driving the economy with tax cuts and spending increases, low interest rates and aggressive Fed purchases of long-term securities. But the Fed appears reluctant to do more. It has cut interest rates to zero. It has purchased so many mortgage-backed securities that it fears that buying more would destroy whatever market for them remains. And it's reluctant to go beyond its announced $300-billion purchases of long-term Treasury securities for fear of unsettling markets and complicating the eventual exit from this extraordinary policy.
That leaves fiscal stimulus. The economic case for more is that the economy looks even weaker than it did when President Barack Obama signed the $787-billion package of tax cuts and spending increases in February. The economic case against is, one, the bulk of the fiscal-stimulus spending hasn't hit yet and what's coming could jolt the economy back to life and, two, the government's debt load is getting awfully big.
The political case for waiting is simple: The first Obama stimulus looks like a flop and Congress won't do more now.
But it's hard to imagine Mr. Obama settling for a jobless recovery, or Democrats in Congress telling voters apologetically in November 2010 that there is nothing more they can do to bring unemployment below 10%.
For now, the talk of more stimulus money has been quashed. The White House game plans seem to be: Get a health-care bill through and argue that will reduce the deficit by slowing health-cost growth. Then, if the economic outlook remains bleak, push another stimulus aimed directly at employment, perhaps a tax break for hiring or even government jobs.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net