本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛USDCAD (1.0685) Equities suffered sizeable losses yesterday as Lehman shares were smashed by rumours that talks with Korea Development Bank had been suspended (Canada’s TSX fell 3.9%). This put pressure on carry trades, sending AUDJPY lower by 3%. However, the USD weathered the storm reasonably well, losing significant ground only against JPY (and to a much lesser extent CHF). Yesterday’s turmoil prompted several large Wall Street dealers to reassure the market that they remained willing counterparties to Lehman, and also convinced the embattled firm to release its Q3 financial results today (a week ahead of schedule). This appeared to bring a bit of calm to markets, with the Nikkei gaining back ground over the course of the session to close down small. European bourses are mixed, but the recovery in carry trade activity looks tentative. The market is currently digesting the Lehman earnings news, but the initial reaction doesn’t look terribly encouraging (JPY is rallying and Treasury yields are falling). The USD continues to prove resilient, advancing against most of the G10 today with the exception of AUD and CAD. The commodity bloc could be getting some support from the surprise announcement that OPEC will cut production by 500K bpd. The news sent oil prices up roughly $1.5/barrel, but the rally fizzled, helping the USD to regain some ground. USDCAD moved back down to 1.0660 in Asia as crude oil advanced, but has made its way back up to 1.0700 as the USD recovers. Liquidity has been relatively limited, although USDCAD has remained within a range. However, we continue to see a break of the topside as the likelier scenario given the resilient USD and unfolding global growth slowdown, with 1.0800 still a critical technical level. • There are no major US economic reports today, so the market is likely to take its cue from the Lehman earnings report, broader equity market developments, and commodities. The reaction so far to the Lehman news indicates little inclination to put on additional risk. (SC FX)更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net