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Busch Update: Rookies Making Rookie Mistakes - by Andrew B. Busch, Global FX Strategist, BMO Capital Markets

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛"Yesterday, we had some questionable reporting on US Treasury Secretary Geithner's comments on the US dollar. Geithner was commenting on a Chinese proposal to develop a new world reserve currency. Appearing in Congress on Tuesday, Geithner said he didn't think it was a good idea to replace the US dollar as a reserve currency. Both Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama said the same thing. Yesterday, Geithner said he was quite open to China's suggestion of moving toward a SDR-linked currency system. He added that the dollar's role in global financial system depends on establishing sustainable fiscal position.

The US dollar immediately lost 2% of its value against most major currencies. Then Geithner back-tracked and said he that the US dollar would remain the world's reserve currency and that a strong dollar was in the US's interest. The US dollar quickly recouped most of its losses.

Unfortunately, this reflects a lack of dexterity when it comes to providing information to the markets. This occurred on February 9th when Obama/Geithner announced their bank rescue plan. Had they said, "We are working on a plan and today we'll give just an overview of what we are doing", then the markets would likely have not aggressive sold financial stocks due to the lack of details. Instead, Obama told the world in his first primetime press conference that Geithner would release a detailed plan and the rest was history.

Imagine what would've happened yesterday if Geithner had said, "We have no change in our US dollar policy and we believe the US dollar will remain the world's reserve currency. Now, the Chinese plan is interesting, but we'll have to study it." Nothing, nothing would've happened. Now, we have tremendous uncertainty created yet again by the US Treasury and this will make foreign investors nervous.

For an administration that has an extremely effective mainstream media campaign on the budget and the need to fix the economy, it's perplexing that they do such a poor messaging job on critical financial market issues. "更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
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