本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛"USDCAD (1.0630) . Most G10 currencies are posting modest gains against the USD today despite a drop in crude oil (following an observation by Saudi Arabia’s oil minister that the market is “well balanced”), although the USD appears to be regaining some strength as we go to press. NZD is outperforming, which looks a bit odd both in the context of AUD’s significant underperformance, and expectations the RBNZ will lower rates on Thursday. CAD is up 0.2% against the USD, placing it squarely in the middle of the G10 pack today (and close to the middle of its latest trading range). Asian equities failed to follow up on yesterday’s strong rally, which points to some skepticism that Sundays GSE takeover was a panacea, although European bourses are in positive territory and S&P futures are pointing to a higher open in the United States. The DXY is down 0.3%, but this follows eight consecutive gains that took the index to overbought levels. Some sort of pullback was inevitable at some point, although at this juncture we think any weakness in the USD will be contained as the pillars of the rally remain largely intact. . The government’s “conservatorship” of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac removed a key source of uncertainty for foreign investors, who hold roughly 20% of the total GSE debt outstanding. This is a key reason the USD did so well yesterday. However, the longer-term benefits to the USD of the Treasury’s actions depend on the tradeoff between the degree of healing they nurture in the housing market and the fiscal consequences. Only time will tell, although the initial response was encouraging – agency spreads narrowed and mortgage rates fell. . Mortgage rates notwithstanding, it is far too early to assess the effectiveness on the Treasury’s move. However, there will probably still be plenty of interest in today’s US pending home sales numbers because the past several reports have been consistent with a stabilization of activity following its precipitous plunge. The US data calendar is otherwise pretty light today. Canada sees August housing starts, which have been trending lower now that multi-unit activity appears to have buckled. However, yesterday’s building permits numbers were a little better than expected, supporting market expectations for a rise today." (SC FX)更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net