本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛( This article is original published in http://seekingalpha.com/article/117999-the-january-effect-time-to-dump-spy?source=wl_sidebar)
The “January Effect” says that if the S&P 500 goes up in January, the trend will follow for the rest of the year. Conversely if the S&P falls in January then it will fall for the rest of the year.
As you can see from the table below which I compiled from the last 58 years' worth of S&P 500 data, there are only 12 years (2005, 2003, 2001, 1994, 1992, 1984, 1982, 1978, 1970,1968, 1966 and 1956) January’s result were different from the year-end results, or 20%.
Source: original data is from http://www.econstats.com/eqty/eqem_mi_1.htm
January 2009 resulted in a loss of more than 8.6% for SPY due to many reasons. One of major reasons was hedge funds' continuous de-leveraging and redemption, which Business Week called 'The Great Redemption Rush'. Hedge funds had no choice but to dump stocks to raise cash -- an eye-popping $1.7 billion per trading day on average, according to The Motley Fool.
Based on the data shown in the table above, there is an 80% chance that 2009 will be negative because of a negative of January 2009. Does that mean investors need to sell out SPY? I don’t think so. Many other theories such as Super Bowl theory, Asset Allocation Rule, or even Black Swan theory suggest a different story.
Today, with SPY yields more than those of 10-year treasurys, it is certainly worth it to hold.
Disclose: I am long SPY.
More articles, visit PointFinancialAdvisor.com更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
The “January Effect” says that if the S&P 500 goes up in January, the trend will follow for the rest of the year. Conversely if the S&P falls in January then it will fall for the rest of the year.
As you can see from the table below which I compiled from the last 58 years' worth of S&P 500 data, there are only 12 years (2005, 2003, 2001, 1994, 1992, 1984, 1982, 1978, 1970,1968, 1966 and 1956) January’s result were different from the year-end results, or 20%.
Source: original data is from http://www.econstats.com/eqty/eqem_mi_1.htm
January 2009 resulted in a loss of more than 8.6% for SPY due to many reasons. One of major reasons was hedge funds' continuous de-leveraging and redemption, which Business Week called 'The Great Redemption Rush'. Hedge funds had no choice but to dump stocks to raise cash -- an eye-popping $1.7 billion per trading day on average, according to The Motley Fool.
Based on the data shown in the table above, there is an 80% chance that 2009 will be negative because of a negative of January 2009. Does that mean investors need to sell out SPY? I don’t think so. Many other theories such as Super Bowl theory, Asset Allocation Rule, or even Black Swan theory suggest a different story.
Today, with SPY yields more than those of 10-year treasurys, it is certainly worth it to hold.
Disclose: I am long SPY.
More articles, visit PointFinancialAdvisor.com更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net