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The Blog of zuluking

Age of Turbulence - 近期的credit crunch分析。

zuluking(Pursuit of Happyness)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛最近，太忙了。忙的我是眼花缭乱。最近的credit crunch,确实很有意思。细节不想说了。新闻报道的多了，也没什么好说的了。甚至今天，美国的Bush， Paulson要干预市场。这一举措，异议纷纷。

subprime这冬冬 确实是美国的资本家发明出来的玩意儿。想想看，美国买不起房子的穷人，被低利息的诱惑买了房子，希望2，3年后，房价翻番，更本就没打算把房子付清，只想这几年的低利息付掉，到时，把房子卖了，白赚几万块，岂不是很爽？这一想法，再加上mortgage broker/bank的低利息的蛊惑，美国的subprime mortgage 预计有850bn 到1 trillion的size.

但是，美国的投行，资本家，确实是聪明，从80年代初期的securitization的初期credit 金融产品。发展到现在的CDO,确实要佩服美国人要全世界的人帮他们分担放贷信用风险的危机。也就是，美国的subprime借款者付不起分期付款了，全世界人民都哭了。瑞士的UBS,德国的Deutche Bank, 英国的RBS, Barclay, 等等，等等，踔林泄更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
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Last Updated: 2007-12-6
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 工作学习 / 事业与工作 / Age of Turbulence - 近期的credit crunch分析。 -zuluking(Pursuit of Happyness); 2007-12-6 {1503} (#4105096@0)
    • . -buickregal(I BELIEVE); 2007-12-7 {19} (#4105371@0)
      Thanks for sharing!
    • What is the impact to CIBC? -simmersnake(步履无声); 2007-12-8 (#4108581@0)
      • CIBC has written off at least 1 billion dollars. -nicetomeetyou(我思我在我梦我爱); 2007-12-8 (#4108701@0)
        • more than that -simmersnake(步履无声); 2007-12-11 (#4114284@0)
        • There might be 2 Billons more write-downs in 1st Q 2008 -mteverest(Everest); 2007-12-11 (#4114348@0)
    • The real problem is those rating agencies have lost their credibilities. How come those AAA bonds have so many defaults? The fears dominate people's mind, then the liquidity dries up and big SIVs default. -student1(working hard); 2007-12-8 (#4108725@0)
      • To regain credibilities, those rating agencies have been forced to downgrade those bonds which induces huge losses in the mark to market process according to accounting rules. That's terrible. -student1(working hard); 2007-12-8 (#4108727@0)
        • Well, not even rating agency knew what's in those SIV before rating was giving out. -zuluking(Pursuit of Happyness); 2007-12-9 {238} (#4109546@0)
          Over-collateralization, waterfall scheme, plus subordination, give junk status assets some upgrades to AAA, AA or A etc investment grade ratings.

          Plus the pyramid scheme of CDOs (resecuritization of any debts possible on planet earth).
    • 美国的资本主义，资本家最痛恨政府对市场的干预。这也是为什么，bush/paulson对subprime市场干预遭到了这么多的反对意见。 -zuluking(Pursuit of Happyness); 2007-12-9 (#4109595@0)
      • I might disagree with you on that. most bank could not survive without politic connection. -simmersnake(步履无声); 2007-12-11 (#4114289@0)
      • when wall street lost a lot money, they will go for Federal Reserve to borrow more money -simmersnake(步履无声); 2007-12-11 (#4114298@0)
    • Hope you are not from CIBC, they suck. -mteverest(Everest); 2007-12-9 (#4109639@0)
      • be more specific? -zuluking(Pursuit of Happyness); 2007-12-9 (#4109661@0)
        • CIBC: The bank that wouldn't grow. For years CIBC has plunged headlong into ventures that promised easy riches at the expense of long-term stability. Whenever there was a bubble about to burst, you could be sure CIBC would be right at the center of it. -nicetomeetyou(我思我在我梦我爱); 2007-12-9 {268} (#4109971@0)
          John Hunkin sucked. Gerry McCaughey is no good either. $5.4 billions has been written off so far for the bad investments, especially for crisis for subprime mortgage sector in the US. CIBC has slipped to last place among Canada's big five in terms of maerket value.
          • all banks are the same. CIBC is just more aggressive. The question is how government and other banks will help CIBC now. -simmersnake(步履无声); 2007-12-11 (#4114292@0)
      • Wherever there are messes, there is CIBC. Enron? Subprime? Amaranth? oh men. Even more funny, CIBC's economist Jeff Rubin predict this morning US market will rebound for good of Fed, then the Market went to hell today. CIBC SUCKS. -mteverest(Everest); 2007-12-11 (#4114312@0)
        • My 2 cents: Don't believe in anything from CIBC. -mteverest(Everest); 2007-12-11 (#4114315@0)
          • too bad, very likely he is from CIBC -szrocky(小石头); 2007-12-12 (#4115880@0)
    • 嗯，我顶。 -maer(马儿-小资岛主); 2007-12-10 (#4112274@0)
    • 老大，RMB对内贬值，对外升值，是不是一样的道理涅？ -maer(马儿-小资岛主); 2007-12-10 (#4112278@0)
      • econ 101 -zuluking(Pursuit of Happyness); 2007-12-11 {230} (#4114565@0)
        中国国内物价飞涨，经济过热，引起通货膨胀，这也是你所说的人民币在国内越来越不值钱的原因。

        人民币对外升值，中国是出口大国是其中的一个因素。外国人购买中国货，理论上来说，是要用外币来购买人民币以次来购买中国货，这样引起人民币升值。
        • "物价飞涨，经济过热，引起通货膨胀"??? 通货膨胀无非就是因为 monetary supply >economic supply, -goingconern(GoingConcern); 2007-12-12 {366} (#4115308@0)
          假如你是外商, 你用 1 M美元换了 8MRMB, 买了一座价值8MRMB的小楼. 现在你要抽走资金, 你是不是希望把小楼买了, 得到8M RMB, 但是你需要换成USD回美国, 你是不是希望汇率变成 1:4, 这样你就可以得到2M USD, 开心回美国 OR 希望房价涨成 16M RMB, 即使汇率还是 1:8, 你还可以换成$2M USD? 房产热在一定程度上掩盖了monetary oversupply的作为.

          国际压力是有其自私原因的, 中央调控不容易着哪.
          • 这和有钱的加拿大人利用升值的加元在美国买房是一样的道理。人民币升值，应该对平抑国内物价有好处，因为进口货一定程度平缓了短缺，促进了价格竞争。货币对内贬值，对外升值，不可能长期并存。 -nicetomeetyou(牛哥); 2007-12-12 (#4115898@0)
          • You brought a good point here, when foreigner buy chinese property, chinese yuan appreciate, when they sell chinese properties, chinese yuan depreciate. -zuluking(Pursuit of Happyness); 2007-12-12 (#4117272@0)
    • 有意思 -chouchou3824(上下左右); 2007-12-11 (#4112460@0)
    • if you have right to vote, who would be the next US president and why? -simmersnake(步履无声); 2007-12-11 (#4114301@0)
    • 解得好, 这是我听到的最形象的CDO的解释, 不过CDO的后盾,应该不仅仅subprime, A, B, Alt A, Alt B, 都有吧. -goingconern(GoingConcern); 2007-12-12 (#4115292@0)
    • Comment? The Bank of Canada said today it will co-ordinate with other central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, to make funds available to banks to deal with the global credit crunch still gripping world markets.
      -nicetomeetyou(牛哥); 2007-12-12 (#4115993@0)
    • subprime 绑在一起的MBS 是CMO (Collaterized Mortgage Obligations). CDO 主要有两种: 早期的CASH CDO 和 现在的SYNTHETIC(合成) CDO ( POOL OF CDS). -sweetcookie(小甜饼); 2007-12-12 {702} (#4117439@0)
      银行的信用危机导致了INLIQUIDITY OF CREDIT MARKET.使各种CREDIT PRODUCTS非常滞销.加拿大最头痛的是ABCP(ASSET BACK COMMERCIAL PAPER),这是一种原本相对安全(评级较高)的短债.投资者不管你是什么ASSET BACK.只要评级高就买入.但是,信用危机发生以后MOODY'S 和S&P 撤消了原来的评级.害死了发债者和投资者. BMO 和NATIOANAL BANK 是5+1大里面最惨的(总共有1B).

      由于CREDIT DERIVATIE定价的复杂性和产品的不流动性.银行付出的代价是TAKE 大量的RESERVE (WRITE DOWN). FED 只有两个武器在手,CUT RATE 和INJECTION MONEY.其实这两个武器作用一样就是INJECTION LIQUIDITY.但这两个武器的克星是INFLATION( CPI RATE).

      从目前美国的通胀看,减息空间还很大,明年至少还有50-75PS空间.难免CIBC 的分析师会产生股市见新高的言论.现在嘲笑这个理论还为时过早.

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