本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛1. I know this theory. And due to this, chinese government increased its debt dramatically during a few years. This ratio in china was very low.
There's debate in economists that whether a high debt rate is good or not. For example, US has only 50-60%. But more and more people feel it's problem, including Baffet.
For china's case, if these money are used wisely, it's ok. But we cannot trust the current government system to use them. There're so many examples.
Do you know the game rule of national debit?
If the debit for 2003 is 300B, they have to fire 400B in 2004. The real money government can get is 400B-300B-(interest of 300B) = 80B.
So when the debit amount increasing, the government did not get a lot of money for each year.
There're only 2 ways to get more money from loans: one is to increase the debt rate, one is to increase the GNP. To increase the ratio too dramatiically means leaving less room for future's government to use this tool. But since people cannot supervise the china's government, they will do whatever they like to do. It's dangerous.
Again, I think the GNP statistics is not accurate. Each city's number is quite arbitary. I happened to know how this number comes out from my hometown. There's no supervision from people or press or law to prevent it.
Sometime it's too ridiculous, the contral government has to adjust it. It's still using another arbitary smaller number to replace it.
2. If in that case, I strongly suggest you to get your canadian passport before going back. It's for your goodness. It will be some inconvenience as a canadian, but it will pay you back in the long haul.
3. If you're not working on strategic beareau or institute to work out reports as your career, the micro view is more important for a person to be precaution in his career.
The macro view is misleaded by so many so-called economists, they've be proved to be liars by the stock market.
A joke told us we should follow exactly the opposite direction that econimists told us.
Micro view is where you're handling day after day. For example, if the jobs are moved from SH to Chendu, and you don't like to stay in Chendu for all your years, you will feel unhappy. And this small things reveal soem inline trends.
If the country is going good, it should reflect into every one's daily life. For example, we all can feel the canada's job market is going up. We can feel the whole econimy of NA is getting better and better.
But in china, it's quite different. There're many complict informations. And we have to analyze their root cause:
1) Every city is getting more and more beautiful with more buildings and highways
---- It looks good and looks like the government has more money. But we should deduct the money got from selling the land (which is a very big piece). Then we can know the real delta generated by economy growth.
2) Many white collars (including teachers, officiers, people in foreign companies) are earning more money and enjoying better life.
---- This is good too. Actually it's the best part. It also reflects the human resource cost increasing. It will hurt the job security in the long run. I happen to know that the IT engineer cost is quite low and stable in India. We always heard the government wants to do this and that. But it does not mean it can fulfill its plan. For this outsourcing service, we cannot beat India.
---- For foreign companies, there's almost no lay-off in china 5 years ago. Now we heard more and more stories. People are talking about "join a small and new foreign company instead of big famous one". This just happened during recent years. Partially because all these big names are not doing well at all in the world, such as Motorola, Cisco, HP, SUN.
3) Workers, farmers and retired peoples are living worse life. There's no doubt for that.
4) Banks are no longer good employers. They're laying off people. Some government offices are laying off people, such as tax system, commercial management. Some univeristies are laying off teachers.
--- This is a good sign though. Actually,I feel only this "negative-like" news is the real good news of china. This will make china a real modern country.
5) People are getting richer
---- Many of them get richer due to real estate. In my previous post, I said the high real estate price is not good for local economy. We should deduct this part.
--- From your poinf of view, it's more important. It's hard for you to buy an apartment in SH now. So you cannot enjoy the benefit from real estate.
6) The law system and criminal rate are getting worse.
7) Education and health service are getting worse.
8) Social security system is bankrupted. It relies mainly on "granted" money from central bank, i.e. printed money, which contributed a lot into the real inflation rate.
BTW, the inflation rate is not very high now mainly because people dare not spend their money. The total amount of money in the market is quite big. Every year, the new money introduced into market is more than the inflation rate. You might have source to get this number. If you get, tell me. You can also ask your professor for this question.
9) All of the government managed or social managed money or funds are not trustable. Such as Xi Wang Gong Cheng and Olypic game funds. If we heard some money is stolen, it's normal. If we never heard, it's abnormal. We can only pray that the amount to be stolen is small enough.
10) How many new factories or famers or businesses are opened during these years? How many revenues are newly generated? How many new products are invented? This is an impoirtant fact. On your class, you should inspect that. This actually reflect if the place is suitable for investment.
Zhong Guan Cun is a good example. It gets a lot of big companies in and kicked out small companies. It was annouced as a good news. But it depends on now you read it.
It's quite common in nowaday china, that government puts more attention on big companies. They compete with each other to offer better tax or low land price to lure these big names. But they forgot to maintain a fair play environment.
I heard there's a term called "kernel competitive power". In Qing Dynasty, china is richer than Japan, but china has no skill and factory to repair the wounded worships but japanese can. So china failed in the war.
11) Government occupied too many resources, which chocked the business. Every business can only develop if they get support from government. Otherwise, it's hard to even survive.
So each time. when I read "Government plans to do this and that", I feel it's a negative thing.
4. I don't think the night life is that important, either from career or family point of view. I feel it's more important to be able to walk in steet late night safely.
5. Many people tell me "since I'm young and unmarried, so I plan to do something in china".
I interpret it as a very bad sign. Because it implies only young and unmarried person can survive in china's careers. It implies people have to sacrifice their own life for career., This should not be called a normal environment. Because whatever how young you are, you will get old and family finally. Then how can you survive in such an environment? You're ok, because you will keep canadian passport as backup (according to my suggestion). I felt that pressure so I immigrated to canada a few years ago.
If it's for short period of time and for a big stake, I'm ok. But if it's only for 300K-400KRMB, forget it.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
There's debate in economists that whether a high debt rate is good or not. For example, US has only 50-60%. But more and more people feel it's problem, including Baffet.
For china's case, if these money are used wisely, it's ok. But we cannot trust the current government system to use them. There're so many examples.
Do you know the game rule of national debit?
If the debit for 2003 is 300B, they have to fire 400B in 2004. The real money government can get is 400B-300B-(interest of 300B) = 80B.
So when the debit amount increasing, the government did not get a lot of money for each year.
There're only 2 ways to get more money from loans: one is to increase the debt rate, one is to increase the GNP. To increase the ratio too dramatiically means leaving less room for future's government to use this tool. But since people cannot supervise the china's government, they will do whatever they like to do. It's dangerous.
Again, I think the GNP statistics is not accurate. Each city's number is quite arbitary. I happened to know how this number comes out from my hometown. There's no supervision from people or press or law to prevent it.
Sometime it's too ridiculous, the contral government has to adjust it. It's still using another arbitary smaller number to replace it.
2. If in that case, I strongly suggest you to get your canadian passport before going back. It's for your goodness. It will be some inconvenience as a canadian, but it will pay you back in the long haul.
3. If you're not working on strategic beareau or institute to work out reports as your career, the micro view is more important for a person to be precaution in his career.
The macro view is misleaded by so many so-called economists, they've be proved to be liars by the stock market.
A joke told us we should follow exactly the opposite direction that econimists told us.
Micro view is where you're handling day after day. For example, if the jobs are moved from SH to Chendu, and you don't like to stay in Chendu for all your years, you will feel unhappy. And this small things reveal soem inline trends.
If the country is going good, it should reflect into every one's daily life. For example, we all can feel the canada's job market is going up. We can feel the whole econimy of NA is getting better and better.
But in china, it's quite different. There're many complict informations. And we have to analyze their root cause:
1) Every city is getting more and more beautiful with more buildings and highways
---- It looks good and looks like the government has more money. But we should deduct the money got from selling the land (which is a very big piece). Then we can know the real delta generated by economy growth.
2) Many white collars (including teachers, officiers, people in foreign companies) are earning more money and enjoying better life.
---- This is good too. Actually it's the best part. It also reflects the human resource cost increasing. It will hurt the job security in the long run. I happen to know that the IT engineer cost is quite low and stable in India. We always heard the government wants to do this and that. But it does not mean it can fulfill its plan. For this outsourcing service, we cannot beat India.
---- For foreign companies, there's almost no lay-off in china 5 years ago. Now we heard more and more stories. People are talking about "join a small and new foreign company instead of big famous one". This just happened during recent years. Partially because all these big names are not doing well at all in the world, such as Motorola, Cisco, HP, SUN.
3) Workers, farmers and retired peoples are living worse life. There's no doubt for that.
4) Banks are no longer good employers. They're laying off people. Some government offices are laying off people, such as tax system, commercial management. Some univeristies are laying off teachers.
--- This is a good sign though. Actually,I feel only this "negative-like" news is the real good news of china. This will make china a real modern country.
5) People are getting richer
---- Many of them get richer due to real estate. In my previous post, I said the high real estate price is not good for local economy. We should deduct this part.
--- From your poinf of view, it's more important. It's hard for you to buy an apartment in SH now. So you cannot enjoy the benefit from real estate.
6) The law system and criminal rate are getting worse.
7) Education and health service are getting worse.
8) Social security system is bankrupted. It relies mainly on "granted" money from central bank, i.e. printed money, which contributed a lot into the real inflation rate.
BTW, the inflation rate is not very high now mainly because people dare not spend their money. The total amount of money in the market is quite big. Every year, the new money introduced into market is more than the inflation rate. You might have source to get this number. If you get, tell me. You can also ask your professor for this question.
9) All of the government managed or social managed money or funds are not trustable. Such as Xi Wang Gong Cheng and Olypic game funds. If we heard some money is stolen, it's normal. If we never heard, it's abnormal. We can only pray that the amount to be stolen is small enough.
10) How many new factories or famers or businesses are opened during these years? How many revenues are newly generated? How many new products are invented? This is an impoirtant fact. On your class, you should inspect that. This actually reflect if the place is suitable for investment.
Zhong Guan Cun is a good example. It gets a lot of big companies in and kicked out small companies. It was annouced as a good news. But it depends on now you read it.
It's quite common in nowaday china, that government puts more attention on big companies. They compete with each other to offer better tax or low land price to lure these big names. But they forgot to maintain a fair play environment.
I heard there's a term called "kernel competitive power". In Qing Dynasty, china is richer than Japan, but china has no skill and factory to repair the wounded worships but japanese can. So china failed in the war.
11) Government occupied too many resources, which chocked the business. Every business can only develop if they get support from government. Otherwise, it's hard to even survive.
So each time. when I read "Government plans to do this and that", I feel it's a negative thing.
4. I don't think the night life is that important, either from career or family point of view. I feel it's more important to be able to walk in steet late night safely.
5. Many people tell me "since I'm young and unmarried, so I plan to do something in china".
I interpret it as a very bad sign. Because it implies only young and unmarried person can survive in china's careers. It implies people have to sacrifice their own life for career., This should not be called a normal environment. Because whatever how young you are, you will get old and family finally. Then how can you survive in such an environment? You're ok, because you will keep canadian passport as backup (according to my suggestion). I felt that pressure so I immigrated to canada a few years ago.
If it's for short period of time and for a big stake, I'm ok. But if it's only for 300K-400KRMB, forget it.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net